Prós e contras da mutualização da dívida na zona euro

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A revista The Economist convidou dois ilustres economistas com opiniões divergentes sobre a mutualização da dívida na zona euro, desafiou-os a enumerarem brevemente o essencial dos seus à priori e das suas soluções para a atual crise e expôs os argumentos numa página de acesso público para todos poderem ler (em inglês): “Should the euro zone’s debt be mutualised?” Os convidados foram Paul De Grauwe (pró mutalização) e Ansgar Belke (contra). Vale a pena ler este curto artigo síntese para se ficar a perceber o essencial daquilo que nos separa.

De nosso lado alinhamos claramente com De Grauwe quanto ao leitor fica com pretexto para reflexão e para entrar no debate se assim o entender aqui, ou na The Economist que tem uma “sala” aberta para a conversa. Eis uma citação de De Grauwe:

” (…) There are three principles that should be followed in designing the right type of debt pooling. First, it should be partial—that is, a significant part of the debt must remain the responsibility of the national governments, so as to give them a continuing incentive to reduce debts and deficits. Several proposals have been made to achieve this (for example, Bruegel and the German debt redemption plan). Second, an internal transfer mechanism between the members of the pool must ensure that the less creditworthy countries compensate (at least partially) the more creditworthy ones. Third, a tight control mechanism on the progress of national governments in achieving sustainable debt levels must be an essential part of debt pooling. The Padoa-Schioppa group has recently proposed a gradual loss of control over their national budgetary process for the breakers of budgetary rules.

The euro zone is in the midst of an existential crisis that is slowly but inexorably destroying its foundations. The only way to stop this is to convince the financial markets that the euro zone is here to stay. A debt pooling that satisfies the principles outlined above would give a signal to the markets that the members of the euro zone are serious in their intention to stick together. Without this signal the markets will not calm down and an end of the euro is inevitable.

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