OCDE: desemprego jovem e de longa duração põem em risco crescimento

A OCDE divulgou a 8 de novembro de 2015 mais uma edição do seu Economic Oulook. Sobre Portugal destacam-se, entre outros, as revisões em alta do crescimento do PIB para 2015 (passa a 1,7%) e em baixa para 2016 (passa a 1,6%). Para 2017 a OCDE antecipa um crescimento do PIB de 1,5%. Entre as restantes variáveis projetadas e combinando com a a análise feita destaca-se a afirmação de que o desemprego jovem e de longa duração põe em risco crescimento futuro. Sem resolver estes problemas subsistentes, dificilmente Portugal conseguirá alcançar níveis de crescimento mais robustos do que os projetados, segundo a OCDE.

Sobre o desemprego em geral ,a OCDE espera que este continue a diminuir mas a um ritmo muito mais lento do que o registado até aqui: 12,3% em 2015,  11,3% em 2016 e 10,6% em 2017.

 Em termos globais o lema é “Moving forward in difficult times” perspetivando dificuldades acrescidas para a economia global nos próximos anos, dando particular destaque aos desafios ambientais e às necessárias transformações económicas.

Eis dois dos três parágrafos da OCDE dedicados a Portugal neste Economic Outlook:

“(…) The rebalancing of the economy has made significant progress with structural improvements in the fiscal and current account balances. However, potential growth needs to be further boosted to enable public and external debt to be put firmly on a declining path. Hence, additional efforts to reduce corporate debt are essential for strengthening investment and accelerating the reallocation of credit towards the tradeable sector, which would be particularly beneficial for exporting firms. Strengthening competition in energy and professional services sectors would lower input prices for other sectors and bolster export competitiveness. A comprehensive assessment of the effects of recent structural reforms is needed, including an evaluation of progress on implementation. Reducing the high share of long-term unemployment and young people not in education or employment would raise output and reduce inequality and poverty.

Although Portugal has been a leader in renewable energy, legacy remuneration schemes provided significant rents to incumbent electricity generators. Even though policy action has led to a considerable reduction in these rents, additional measures should be taken to further decrease them and to boost competition in the sector, also enhancing the competitiveness of downstream industries. Accelerating plans to improve connectivity to European networks would also stimulate efficiency. Further strengthening the reliance on green taxes, while reducing other taxes, would enhance investment incentives and promote sustainable growth.”