A CMVM divulgou hoje mais uma edição do seu Risk Outlook sobre os mercados de valores mobiliários (ações, obrigações, fundos, derivados ,etc), desta feita com análise baseada em dados até meados de julho de 2013. Destacamos aqui as principais conclusões (a publicações é editada em inglês – sublinhados nossos):
In general, comparing to the beginning of the 2013, the international economic environment is now less prone to fuel strong economic growth rates or strong economic recoveries. In this sense, economies trying to significantly improve their situation will face a less favorable macroeconomic background which generally will represent bigger challenges to deal with looming or current economic risks.
Important levels of political and economic uncertainty remain in the Eurozone that could trigger further and sudden turmoil directly affecting the security markets performance. There has not been significant change in the perceived level of risk in the Eurozone markets; a conclusion supported by recent episodes of turbulence and by the latest data from relevant market indicators.
The Portuguese securities markets indicators reveal a recent deterioration in terms of value at risk, market volatility and earnings, signaling the maintenance of a very demanding environment for listed companies.
Even though some decrease in the growth rate of non-performing-loans and some indebtedness recovery (exclusively among the biggest corporations) has been registered in recent data, the difficulties to find alternative funding sources and/or to conclude debt restructuring and deleveraging by most of the Portuguese corporate sector is still a very relevant market risk by mid-2013.
Episodes of algorithmic / high frequency trading focused in some Portuguese listed companies stocks are still being registered and monitored in order the evaluate possible risks and unlawful market practices.
The predominance of OTC trades over regulated market activities remains an issue. This rapid and most significant shift of activity away from regulated markets poses serious challenges and could pose important risks on the account that most of the trading business is now being performed in less transparent, less regulated and less supervised stances.
Even if there is a declared market fragmentation within the Eurozone, concerning the access to capital markets between the region peripheral countries (facing higher interest rates) and the center (with much milder interest rates), several market players that operate globally and locally are facing hardship to find reliable sources of not so low returns. The risk for ill advised search for yield strategies, particularly based in short term investment evaluation spans, pose serious risks to the sustainability of the financial system, especially in the event of an unexpected economic shock. The relevance of the investment in high yield corporate bonds at the expenses of other less riskier assets in portfolios historically more risk averse must be closely monitored.
Finally, the increasing weight of special investment funds (with somewhat loosen regulatory criteria for asset management entities), the evaluation of the portfolio assets in private equity funds (especially when related to real estate) and also the hype over structured products (particularly suited to bundle securities in creative and seldom complex manners) pose important challenges to the regulator and to the market participants. These subjects remain under surveillance to avert investment misalignments with potential consequences both in behavioral and prudential terms.