Luís Aguiar-Conraria* num curto artigo no The Portuguese Economy (aqui => “The Biggest Challenge” ) expõe, recorrendo a um estudo muito recente do Banco de Portugal (que já aqui destacámos, ver “Cada euro a menos no défice são dois a menos no PIB (Banco de Portugal)“, quais os impactos que o corte esperado pela troika para implementar em 2014 ao nível do consumo público acabará por ter o efeito de reforçar de forma muito significativa a produção nacional e aumentar o desemprego por troca de uma queda marginal (1 ponto percentual) do défice público. Vale a pena ler e usar na grelha de informação com que o cidadão comum deve avaliar o debate público e político em curso.
Um excerto:
“(…) If this number is correct, then the 4.7 bn cut would lead to contraction in GDP of 5.7%. This contraction in GDP, by itself, would cause the debt to GDP ratio to increase by 7 percentage points (from 125 to 132%). Additionally, the recession would also lead to a decrease in tax revenues. If tax revenues dropped by 3.3 bn then the budget deficit would decrease by 0.6 percentage points.*
In sum, if these cuts were to be implemented, Portugal, whose GDP is already at pre-millennium levels, would face a huge recession. Unemployment, which is already at an all-time high, would explode. The only benefits would be a decrease in the budget deficit by less than 1 pp. together with an upsurge in the debt to GDP ratio. This is just silly.Given this, I would say that the biggest challenge that the new Government, whatever its form, will face is to convince the troika that this additional cut is simply stupid. (…)”
*Luís Aguiar-Conraria é um economista da Universidade do Minho sem qualquer filiação ou dependência partidária.
